The historical drama film The Imitation Game is about Alan Turing breaking the German wartime Enigma code. To solve the code, Alan Turing applied Bayes’ approach to probability, which has been termed “the theory that would not die." The Bayesian interpretation of probability reflects the incompleteness of our knowledge and is suited for mastering complexity (1). Bayes’ rule can be described in one sentence: by updating our initial beliefs (about something) with objective new information, we get … [Read more...]
Dare to use your own intelligence
Sapere aude! Dare to use your own intelligence! This is the battle cry of Enlightenment. Immanuel Kant in 1784 Medical doctors are highly intelligent people with immense abilities to acquire knowledge. Through studies at university, regular reading of medical research and learning from their colleagues, doctors become highly knowledgable. Keeping up to date with new research is a somewhat obsessive-compulsive behaviour among many of them. Although new knowledge does not come with a "best … [Read more...]
Are non-communicable diseases not caused by microorganisms?
According to Wikipedia, a non-communicable disease, or NCD, is a medical condition or disease that can be defined as non-infectious and non-transmissible among people. The basic causes of NCD are unknown and for that reason, we cannot say for sure that NCD are not caused by infections. Multiple epidemiological studies have, for example, established positive associations between the risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality and markers of infection(1). However, what we definitely … [Read more...]
A Standard Model of medicine
If it is terrifying to think that life may be at the mercy of the multiplication of infinitesimally small creatures, it is also consoling to hope that science will not always remain powerless before such enemies. . . . All is dark, obscure and open to dispute when the cause of the phenomena is not known; all is light when it is grasped. Louis Pasteur (1822-1895) With the view that Louis Pasteur’s “germ theory of disease” should be revived regarding non-communicable diseases, … [Read more...]
Patients and clinicians need to know the aetiology of non-communicable diseases
One of the most striking contributions of Hippocrates is the recognition that diseases are only part of the processes of nature, that there is nothing divine or sacred about them. . . [He] remarks that each disease has its own nature, and that no one arises without a natural cause. Sir William Osler (1849-1919) Medical scientific endeavours have unravelled the causes of infectious diseases. Most infectious diseases are transmittable between humans, but some of them are transmitted … [Read more...]